Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine has thrust the world into a dangerous and volatile era. Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to undo Europe’s post-Cold War settlement, control his neighborhood, and disrupt the influence of open democratic societies, not because of what they do but because of who they are. He is determined to use military force and coercion to change Europe’s map. The implications are profound for the future of Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe. I offer regular commentary on the issues.
- How effective are sanctions against Russia? Daniel S. Hamilton, Bloom Europa Podcast
- The Ukraine War: Has it permanently changed the European Security Order? The Global Gambit/Clubhouse/Spotify
- The West prepares for Putin’s next moves as Ukraine war enters a new phase, Patrick Galey, NBC News
- As Russia balks, NATO might gain two strong Nordic recruits, commentary for GZero Media
- Russia’s threats to move nuclear weapons to Baltic ‘disingenuous,’ expert says, commentary for The National Desk
- The War in Ukraine and NATO’s next Strategic Concept, panel with Elcano Royal Institute
- We have to adjust to a reality where we are in constant confrontation with Russia, interview with Reason [original in Danish | English translation]
- The War in Ukraine, the Post-Cold War Order, and European Security, panel with the German Historical Institute
- The Fragile World Order, Interview with This is America & The World
- EU leaders back on secure footing with U.S. as Biden returns to Europe, Commentary for National Journal
- Lessons for NATO from the war in Ukraine, Politico, Hans Binnendijk and Daniel S. Hamilton
- White House: Biden will travel to Europe for Ukraine talks, Commentary for AP News
- What is the threat of a ‘cornered’ Putin as the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on? Commentary for ABC News
- Russia’s Ultimate Goal in Ukrainian War, Interview with Spectrum News
- On the Hill: Putin’s Next Steps, Interview with Fox News
- Around the halls: Implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Brookings Institution
- The Russia File
- Eastern Voices: Europe’s East faces an Unsettled West
- The Eastern Question: Russia, the West and Europe’s Grey Zone
In recent years I have partnered with my colleague Stefan Meister, head of the Robert Bosch Center at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), and the Robert Bosch Stiftung to explore Russia-European-American dynamics in a turbulent time.
During the initial phase of our project in 2015-2016 we focused on the need to identify common elements of a Western strategy towards eastern Europe and Russia, via a Transatlantic Strategy Group of eminent persons. That phase resulted in a book entitled The Eastern Question: Russia, the West and Europe’s Grey Zone.
During 2016-2017 we focused on perspectives from east European and Russian experts and opinion leaders, who offered a reality check for the recommendations we made in The Eastern Question. This phase resulted in two publications. The first, entitled Eastern Voices: Europe’s East faces an Unsettled West, features east European authors. The second, entitled The Russia File, features Russian authors representing a range of perspectives on future relations.
In 2018 we have generated a number of scenarios — narratives of alternative futures – that can enable decision-makers to play out the potential ramifications of choices they face today. These scenarios are not about linear extrapolations of trends, they are about making connections among different trends in ways that stretch our thinking, enable us to think beyond “business as usual,” and allow us to include black and white swans as we look to the future. In Brussels and in Washington, DC we conducted the scenarios with high level U.S., east/west European and Russian participants.
Read the results of the scenario building in our Russia and the West 2028.
We also moderated a virtual scenario exercise in June 2018 in cooperation with Friends of Europe as part of their annual Debating Security Plus exercise.
What does the future hold for relations among Russia, Europe and the United States? I have worked with my colleague Stefan Meister at DGAP, with support from the Robert Bosch Stiftung, to construct a series on future scenarios. In cooperation with Riddle we have asked next-generation authors from Russia and eastern Europe to comment on these scenarios: