Russia, Ukraine and Eastern Europe

Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine has thrust the world into a dangerous and volatile era. Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to undo Europe’s post-Cold War settlement, control his neighborhood, and disrupt the influence of open democratic societies, not because of what they do but because of who they are. He is determined to use military force and coercion to change Europe’s map. The implications are profound, not only for the future of Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe, but for the world. 

Publications and Commentary

Russian Intentions and Actions in the Black Sea
I lead this project with Angela Stent, Senior non-resident Fellow at Brookings and Professor Emerita at Georgetown University. Together with senior officials and experts we are examining Russia’s intentions in the Black Sea, its tools and instruments of influence, and what future actions it is likely to take there during and after the war with Ukraine. We are viewing these issues through three analytic lenses: how Russia engages with individual littoral states to advance its interests; how Russia exploits or is affected by the Black Sea’s role as a conduit of critical flows of food, energy, goods, services and people; and how the Black Sea relates to Russian interests in adjoining regions – the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and the Caucasus.

Russia’s Relations with Key Strategic Partners Around the Globe 

This project, which I lead also with Angela Stent, seeks to better understand Russia’s goals for its relationships with key U.S. pivotal partners globally and draw insights on how those relationships constrain and shape Russian-Chinese strategic cooperation. We are conducting a series of individual dialogues with nine non-Atlantic pivotal partners: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, and Turkey. These workshops focus on how Russia’s relations with other powers affect its stance towards its war on Ukraine, its strategic alignment with China, and what can be learned about Russia’s motivations from perspectives outside the traditional trans-Atlantic lens.

Working Group on Transatlantic Security After Russia’s War on Ukraine

Participants include senior officials, scholars and think tank experts from across the transatlantic space. This project follows on earlier cooperation that resulted in three books:

Before Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine we generated a number of scenarios — narratives of alternative futures for relations with Russia. Read the results of the scenario building in our Russia and the West 2028 and imagine the dynamics of four “alternative futures” from our digital exercises with Civocracy here: